Toward Earthquake Early Warning

Below are some of the key publications leading from the scientific discoveries making earthquake early warning possible to the public policy and legislation providing for a public warning system in the United States.

The MyShake Platform: A Global Vision for Earthquake Early Warning.

Allen, R.M., Q. Kong, R. Martin-Short, Pure Appl. Geophys. 177, 1699–1712, 2020 (doi: 10.1007/s00024-019-02337-7)
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Towards Global Earthquake Early Warning with the MyShake Smartphone Seismic Network

Kong, Q., R. Martin-Short, R.M. Allen, Seismo. Res. Lett. (doi: 10.1785/0220190177 and 10.1785/02201901782020), 2020
Part 1 - Simulation platform and detection algorithm. (Download PDF)
Part 2 - Understanding MyShake performance around the world. (Download PDF)

MyShake Citizen Seismologists help launch dual-use seismic network in California

Strauss, J.A., Q. Kong, S. Pothan, S. Thompson, A. Mejia, S. Allen, S. Patel, R.M. Allen, Front. Commun. 5:32. (doi: 10.3389/fcomm.2020.00032), 2020
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Optimizing Earthquake Early Warning Performance: ElarmS‐3

Chung, A.I., I. Henson, R.M. Allen, Seismo. Res. Lett. 90 (2A) p727-743 (doi: 10.1785/0220180192), 2019
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Earthquake Early Warning: Advances, Scientific Challenges, and Societal Needs

Allen, R.M., D. Melgar, Earthquake Early Warning: Advances, Scientific Challenges, and Societal Needs. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 47:361–88, 2019.
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Quantifying the value of real‐time geodetic constraints for earthquake early warning using a global seismic and geodetic data set.

Ruhl, C. J., Melgar, D., Chung, A. I., Grapenthin, R., & Allen, R. M., J. Geophysical Research: Solid Earth,124 (doi: 10.1029/2018JB016935), 2019 Download PDF

Revised technical implementation plan for the ShakeAlert system—An earthquake early warning system for the West Coast of the United States

U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2018–1155
Authors: Given, D.D., Allen, R.M., Baltay, A.S., Bodin, P., Cochran, E.S., Creager, K., Gee, L.S., Hauksson, E., Heaton, T.H., Hellweg, M., Murray, J.R., Thomas, V.I., Toomey, D., and Yelin, T.S. Download PDF

The value of real-time GNSS to earthquake early warning

Ruhl, C.J., D. Melgar, R. Grapenthin, and R.M. Allen, Geopys. Res. Lett., 44, 8311-8319, (doi: 10.1002/2017GL074502), 2017 Download PDF

Benefits and Costs of Earthquake Early Warning

Three lives saved, two semiconductor plants warned, one Bay Area Rapid Transit train slowed, a 1% reduction in nonfatal injuries, and a 0.25% avoidance of gas-related fire damage would each save enough money to pay for 1 year of operation of a public warning system for the entire U.S. West Coast.
Strauss and Allen, Seismological Research Letters May/June 2016, doi: 10.1785/0220150149 Download PDF

May 2014: Technical Implementation Plan for the ShakeAlert Production System—An Earthquake Early Warning System for the West Coast of the United States

USGS Open File Report 2014-1097 detailing what is needed to implement a public earthquake early warning system for the US west coast.
Authors: D.D. Given, E.S. Cochran, T. Heaton, E. Hauksson, R. Allen, P. Hellweg, J. Vidale, and P. Bodin
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October 2013: Seconds count -- Nature

The United States should install an earthquake early-warning system now — and before the next big one hits, says Richard Allen.
Allen, Nature 502, 29-31, doi:10.1038/502029a, 2013.
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September 2013: Senate Bill No. 135 signed into law

California Governor Jerry Brown signed Senate Bill 135 by Senator Alex Padilla (D-Pacoima), which requires that the Office of Emergency Services develop a comprehensive statewide earthquake early warning system to alert Californians in advance of dangerous shaking.
The legislation also directs the Office of Emergency Services to identify a source of funding for the system.
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April 2011: Seconds before the big one -- Scientific American

Earthquake detection systems can sound the alarm in the moments before a big tremor strikes—time enough to save lives
Allen, Scientific American
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2009: Two special issue volumes about earthquake early warning in key geophysical journals

A total of 17 articles in the two issues including an overview of earthquake early warning around the world [Allen et al. SRL 2009], and a report of the first alert generated for a California earthquake by ElarmS [Allen et al. GRL 2009].

May 2003: The Potential for Earthquake Early Warning in Southern California -- Science

Here we outline the earthquake early warning concept for the United States and detail how the ElarmS warning algorithm could provide alerts if implemented on the real-time seismic networks.
Allen and Kanamori, Science, 300, 786-789, 2003.
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Technical Publications